Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) released its latest Construction Backlog Indicator in June, and the headline is pretty straightforward: work is still stacking up.
In May, backlog rose to 9.1 months—up 0.3 months from April and 0.7 months compared to this time last year. That puts the industry near a three-year high, which signals steady demand across much of the country.
Regionally, backlog increased everywhere except the South. Even so, the South still has the largest backlog overall and has seen the biggest year-over-year gains. For commercial paint contractors, that likely means continued opportunity in large-scale and ongoing projects, especially in consistently active markets.
At the same time, ABC’s Construction Confidence Index readings for May showed a dip in expectations for sales, profit margins, and staffing. That said, all three metrics remain above 50, which means contractors generally expect growth over the next six months—but with a bit more caution than earlier this year.
According to ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu, much of the backlog growth is being driven by data center construction. Contractors working on those projects are reporting significantly longer backlogs—about 11.6 months compared to 8.6 months for those who aren’t.
That surge is creating a bit of a split in the industry. Larger firms and those tied into major data center work are seeing stronger pipelines, while others may not be feeling the same momentum. That imbalance likely explains why confidence softened slightly, even as overall backlog increased.
Bottom line: there’s still plenty of work out there, but where you sit—and what types of projects you’re tied into—matters more than ever right now.
